Sunday, May 24, 2009

Russia and China... a new world order?

I absolutely love Russia.

I love Russian vodka
I love Russian's revolutionaries. Lenin. Stalin. Trotsky.
(not in a "wow what a good guy kind of way... in a "wow what an interesting guy" kind of way)

I love Russian scandals



(Left) A charicature of Rasputin, the Russian mystic who was, amongst other things, believed to have been intrinsic in the fall of the Romanov family

And former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko who was poisoned. It was suspected to be an attack made by Putin's government whom Litvinenko openly opposed.


I love how the enemies from 1980s and early 1990s Bond movies are always Russian henchmen.


But what I most love about Russia,

Is the fact that even though this superpower suffered a humiliating collapse in 1990, and has endured regional instability ever since, it always lurks in the background... as if the country is plotting a fierce comeback and is going to take down all who opposed them back in the days when the Cold War was raging.

For those who are not yet unsettled, this is what Lenin once threatened, "capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them" (United Press International)

Comforting.

International rhetoric associated with the decline of America, the perils of the economic recession and the potential for a superpower with an entirely different system of government to step onto the scene has somewhat ignored Russia's potential to fulfill this purpose. It hovers on the fringe of the Big Players game occasionally jumping in to prevent a peacekeeping operation here or there, or to instigagte it's own peacekeeping (slash troop deployment) missions when the United Nation "fails" to do so.

There is no denying that Russia is a regional hegemon in Eastern Europe, whether the surrounding countries like this fact or not, Russia has certainly got muscle. As one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, Russia has the power of veto to prevent Council Resolutions from being adopted. And don't think Russia has not taken full advantage of this privilege; since 1946 it has declared a total of 123 vetoes (the United States is in second place with 82).

This power has been used sparingly since the end of the Cold War when Russia endured a period of humble withdrawal from the main stage, but in recent years the country has begun to throw it's weight around in a variety of issues ranging from the attempt to re-build a country in Kosovo to UN sanctions on Zimbabwe.

What could be behind this sudden boost in confidence?

Introducing the best new talent: China!

China has failed to endear itself to me. Of course this is partly due to the fact that the country strictly controls their internet censorship (I am highly addicted to the internet) and is covered by a constant sheet of smog, but the primary cause of my dissent is the systematic violation of human rights that continues to persist unquestionably even as Chinese politics enter the spotlight.

Whether it's my disappointment that such vasts amounts of people are willing to mindlessly support the Chinese attempt to wipe out an entire heritage and culture for the Tibetan people (is anyone else hearing warning bells of genocide?) or the fear that a globally dominant China will soon start to influence my access to basic human rights, at the end of the day... I am not fan.

But Russia is.

There is increasing evidence that Russia and China- two of the most powerful potential threats to the United States, so far unchallenged, dominance- are having "chats". And if these chats lead to some sort of alliance or coalition, the ramifications for the world, whether positive or negative, will be huge.





The geographical location and sheer size of these countries are intimidating in the very least, as is the economic prowess of the two countries.

Russia holds the world’s largest natural gas reserves and is the world’s largest exporter. The country also holds the eighth largest oil reserves, of which it is the second largest oil exporter. ( taken from an article on http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/)

China is, simply, a sleeping giant (that has started to wake up and stretch its arms).

If that part doesn't scare you- then the possibility of Iran being enlisted in the ranks should.

There are a variety of other countries that are considering joining the alliance, including those rapidly developing economic forces of India and Brazil, as well as Iran, South Africa and Venezuela. Though the "alliance" is still in it's fledgling stages, Russia and China's eco-political coalition is making some headway.

A major pipeline for natural gas is in production and will spread from Siberia to Khabarovsk which will allow for a juncture to feed a pipeline to China. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has visited Beijing and discussed the possibility of joining forces, particularly in the area of energy. The two countries are currently negotiating two more natural gas pipelines to enter China from two different locations (again from http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/). While Russia has oil and weapons, China has the resources and hard cash to support Russian economic growth and development of its infrastructure.

What does this mean for the West? We always knew that China and Russia were lurking in the background, waiting for the chance to take the "World's most powerful Country and Self-Proclaimed Police Force" title from America, but perhaps the superpowers' willingness to share the torch might mean the day will come alot sooner. And though there is no question that the entire globe is moving towards more of a diplomatic era where "peace talks" and "resolutions" are being favoured over guns and bombs, this is a product of a western influenced international regime (The UN, EU, etc). So if the US is toppled- will China and Russia start taking the hard line? What does this mean for diplomacy, Human Rights, individualism, and overall Peace and war?

My History professor referred to China as having an "Authoritarian Capitalist" regime. It indicates a more terrifying kind of capitalism... a market completely free of accountability accompanied by a political structure completely free of accountability.

I guess if all of these hypotheticals that I have vastly blown out of proportion eventually take form, at least the US and UK (oh and I forgot about France) have the power of veto as well. So we can rest safe in the knowledge that while Russia and China are out there picking their battles and drafting resolutions, we'll still have the sulky backbencher who can pipe up every now and again and say "nay" when their dominance (what has been reduced to a regional dominance) comes under threat.

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